Sell to open 4 contracts of 0941.HK $85 May 12 Put @ $1.27
Premium = $2540
交易時的正股價 = $87.1
4手0941正股平均潛在成本 = $85 x 4 x 500 = $170000
項目回報率 = $2540/170000 = 1.49%
組合回報率 = $2540/2005686 = 0.13%
Option引伸波幅 = 21%
0941的30日歷史波幅 =18.84 %
0941於5月30日前收高於$85的機會率 = 55.37%
這是本月last的short put，因為再做也已沒有現金接貨了！
餘下時間會繼續持有或等待機會short call。
8仔...問你個問題...假如 中移動突然跌穿80蚊....你咁多85 SP 你會點做呀?
回覆刪除好問題,如果是其他股票,我會止蝕.
刪除但如果是941,除非基本面轉壞,我唔會止蝕.
舉例,如果跌到$75,我應該會Long DITM Call,再short更多的covered call以作補救.
如果沒跌得咁深,我會就咁short covered call.
你點解唔做 long put 87 或以上去做married put，用嚟做 hedging?
回覆刪除hmm...因為我比較上唔擔心941會跟大市下跌. 如果是其他股份,我都可能會咁做,又或者就咁long DITM call,其實同married put分別唔大,只係冇咗派息.
刪除不過我最近見派息前的DITM call十分貴!
Using married put as hedging, you can control your risk level. While using dtim call, we will suffer from the underlying stock price drops, as well as the call time value decay a. So the risk is double. Please correct me if I am wrong. thanks in advanced
刪除Long stock + long put basically = long call. In both cases the investor is protected against any drop further below the exercise price. In both cases you're requried to pay a premium, but according to my experience, DITM call's time value premium is usually less than the put's time value premium. Also, the "long call" transaction is a simple single transaction, while long stock + long put require 2 actions, and the commission costs will be higher.
刪除Hi thank for your sharing.
刪除In my experience, Long stock + long put is not equal to long call for the following reasons:
1. long stock can collect dividend, while long call cannot
2. long call will also suffer from the drop of the underlying stock price + time decay for the long call option
With married put, we can assure that by when we can sell the stock with a pre-defined price managed by the long put strike.
for the premium we paid for the long put, we can still use the covered call, ratio spread and etc to recover part of the premium paid.
So in short, do you advice us to use the married put from the sake of risk management perspective?
Thank you for your advice in advanced again.
1. This point is true, but the known dividend is usually priced-in into the call.
刪除2. Long stock will also suffer from the drop of the stock price, until it reaches the put's strike price. It's no different than longing a call with the same strike.
e.g.
Long stock at $100 + long put at $90, max loss = $10
Long $90 call (when stock price is $100), max loss also = $10
Both requires to pay a premium.
In fact w/ the long call, you can still sell calls of higher strikes at no real risk. (similar to covered call, as it's hedged by the long $90 call) In that way you'll also recover some premium cost paid for the $90 call.
In short, if you already own the stock, married put is still a good way to manage risk if you want to protect your downside while enjoying unlimited upside. But if you haven't bought anything yet, I believe longing a call is just as fine.
Also, I want to add a point. When the valuation of stocks become more and more expensive, it might become increasing necessary to do the married put. At cheap valuation levels however, married put might not always be necessary.
941 today's closing has been broken SMA 20,50 and 100. If 941 closing lower than $85, you have to exercise all short put. What's your strategy then to minimize risk? Long put or short call or both? Please kindly advise. Thanks!
刪除Hi Op, I rarely look at technical analysis. Basically the lower the share price, the lower the risk, given that the fundamentals are unchanged. I don't think I'll long put. Maybe I'll short some calls to potentially get some cash back, especially if exercised.
刪除Thanks. Indeed, your input is valid.
刪除In fact, my married put will have strike price at 90 which will ensure I can sell the stock which is higher than my purchase price. In this case, we will not suffer from the 10 dollar lost in your example, though the premium paid will be higher.
By the way, just response to your response on Op8108. If you do not look into the technical analysis, how do you set the strike level for either put and call with a reasonable chance to collect the premium?
I am sure there is something we need to do on managing the option risk no matter you are on the write or buy side.
On more question which really need your input. In case 941 drops below the SP 85 strike,and you have 10 days to go to expire, what will you normally do to avoid potential lost if 941 is close under 80 by end of May? I guess a lot of friends will have the same question.
Again, thanks for your sharing, and look forward your reply.
I'm not sure if I understand. You mean your strike is higher than your purchase price? In such case are we still talking about the same example? So if you bought the stock for $100, you are longing a married put at strike of $102.5 for example? If so, you'll only start making money when the stock goes above $102.5, as from $100 to $102.5 you'll only breakeven. Again this is similar to buying an OTM call with strike of $102.5.
刪除The way I trade depends mostly on fundamentals, and sometimes I'd like to benefit from the high IVs when I sell options. If I intend to hold the stock at a certain strike which is fundamentally safe (e.g. 4% interest or higher), sometimes I'll simply sell without additonal reasons. Maybe this is something I need to improve also to be honest, and maybe you could share some of your thoughts. I do not believe in tecnical analysis simply because all sorts of supports or resistances can be broken randomly at times and without a reason anyway, if it's meant to be.
In fact I'm considering to raise my cash levels by selling some slightly OTM calls after ex-dividend date. i.e. sell some $85 calls and calls with less chance of exercising to keep a certain level of upside. Personally I do not believe there's a much further downside for 941, but if it happens I may speed up recovery by longing ATM calls + shorting double qty of OTM calls. Say at around $75 levels.
Yes, this is my practice to risk management. Say for 941, if my average cost is 85 say per share, I will long put 90 so that I can ensure I have the rights to sell my 941 @ 90 to somebody who is short put at 90. I shall pay extra premium on doing so, however, as said, I can always use covered call, credit spread or ratio spread to recover some of the premium I pay extra.
刪除However, this is just an example as I do not trade HK stock as the option market is not very active. I use this strategy to trade US stocks and options and it works perfectly. I used to manage my over profile to a risk level not more than 3-5%. My profile size is similar to you in HK dollar.
BTW, it is you to trigger my interest in options trading back to 4 months ago. I should say thank you to your for bringing us such a eye-opening investment tools.
"sell some $85 calls" 你指正股？
刪除"sell some $85 call" means short call @ $85 to receive premium.
刪除8仔, 你好...
回覆刪除So far其實941真係都算硬淨，好過其他藍籌好多....
我想問做左即月Sell to open of contract 941 @85, 係咪如果到了到期日個股價冇跌穿85的話, 係咪唔洗平倉佢自動識平倉架?定還是我需要係到期日之前平倉收期權金? 請指教. 謝
正確. 如果到期時option仍是OTM(941在$85或以上),你平倉的手續費都可以慳返. =) OTM option到期後會自動消失.
刪除嘩, 甘正架..甘到時如果真係仲係OTM, 甘我一於不理等佢自動消失.....:)
刪除係呀,我絕大部份時間都會咁做 =)
刪除睇黎8仔你想係85接貨而家好大機會.....而我就需要睇位蝕小小走....he he
刪除月尾咪知囉 =)
刪除8仔, 我走左喇...我唔想接貨..今日最低係83.xx..等唔到月尾喇..我估一到價, 好大機會係即時要我接貨啦.....
刪除其實比較少人會一到價即時行使,因為佢賣出option會比行使賺得多. (因為有時間值,而且現時IV很高.) 不過你唔想接貨,應該不要做太貼價比較好.
刪除我係約5月頭時做sp 85的..上星期都仲有錢+.....今日就....早知上星期食左糊先...衰貪心..我其實唔知係咪會即時比人call取貨因我係新手...驚驚地..所以都係走左佢先....汲取今次教訓, 希望下月做好d.....:)
刪除呀..唔記得問你...而家已經跌穿左$85, 係咪如果好似你甘講, 你都味必有人打比你叫你接貨架?
刪除正常結算前一日或當日才有機會被行駛。
刪除多謝Samson指教....我之前都有聽朋友講接貨未必係一定..佢話randomly接貨..睇你好唔好采被call....不過唔知堅定流....:)
刪除係堅的, 我有次好好彩入左價內都唔使接貨, 穩袋期權金, 你尋日咁快平倉實屬不智...
刪除我禽日甘快平,因要控制蝕既錢有幾多...而且我唔想接貨..我都唔知係到期日甘上下先至有機會被call接貨啦....
刪除但就算係穩代期權金..應該都係蝕錢個播如果正股價跌穿左你入既行洗價...如果我諗法有誤, 歡迎指導.....
如果你是Short put的話,除非你對手想早啲套現(因為賣出價已知),否則很少機會會被提早行使,尤其現在時間值/IV比較高.
刪除如果put option未到1.5%價內,持有人如要行使,是必須要在到期前給指示他的證券行的,否則會被當作棄權.
如果到期後option在1.5%價內,便會自動行使.
8仔, 多謝指教. 言則, 當sp@ $85, 如果到期日內在1.5%價內, 即係= $83.73就會自動行使?
刪除Sorry 可能講得唔清楚. 應該係>1.5%價內便會自動行使. 即$83.73或以下.
刪除唔洗sorry,多謝你就真...我又學到野喇. 下次做好d~~
刪除8仔, 今朝睇news, 941's ADR跌到去81.XX, 如果甘睇, 照計係唔洗等到到期日應該好大機會會被行使.....
刪除有機會可能下星期升番都唔奇, 941收市都企番係83....good news.
刪除但星期一會除淨$1.747
刪除8仔, 想問你股票期權到期日係咪同指數期權同一日架? 指數到期日(最後交易日)是5月30日. 謝謝
刪除對,是同一日的.
刪除8仔, 如果想接貨當然由佢自動到時expire就可..甘我想問, 黎近6月8日派息甘新接既貨係咪都有息派架? 我見到截至過戶日期是5月25日....請指教. 謝
刪除冇息派，除淨日之前接坐貨才有。
刪除Samson,
刪除謝謝你的指導.
甘我覺得好似唔多低甘, 如果月尾諗住接貨, 到時派左息係益左賣貨出黎既人喎甘...
6月要派既股息已在5月21日(除淨日)在股價扣除，所以你接貨都唔會話益左賣貨既人。
刪除甘..Samson兄唔知你有冇聽過有人收到貨後打比經紀要求出貨既人比番股息佢呀....
刪除冇
刪除又忍唔住，今早 0941 正股價 $85.15 Short Put 4手 2012-05 8500 $@2.30 成本 = $170000 期權金 $4600 回報率 2.71%
回覆刪除hmm.. 成本即係$82.7. 應該冇問題啦! 今日跌得有啲過份.
刪除犀利, Samson. 你應該而家+緊錢...congrat!
刪除當然唔係，我有16手SP$85，期權平均價 $1.49
刪除Mr. 8,
刪除Samson's cost to own 941 will be 83.51. 941 ADR closes at 81.868 this morning. Any suggestion for him to minimize the risk of share price drops?
I still think it's a golden chance to buy more, especially it's ex-dividend date next monday. The business of 941 should have very little or no relevance of what's happening in Europe. In fact, however, to manage risk, I may change the long stocks into long ditm or itm calls (delta > 0.9), to free up cash next monday.
刪除For the short puts, I suggest to hold onto them. Volatility is too high to close or to long put lower strikes now. The risk of the stock itself is still very low, but when the market is in panic mode, they sell even the best stocks. Worst case is to get 4% interest a year, while doing covered calls to get additional returns to speed up recovery.
When SP a stock, I always prepared for the worst case :)
刪除Samson,
刪除Can you share usually what is the worst case you prepare when doing a SP? your knowledge will be useful for us as well. Thanks in advanced.
No trick, just as 師父 mentioned above... Hold them then enjoy 4% interest a year while doing covered calls to get additional returns to speed up recovery. Any other suggestions?
刪除What if the stock price drops 10-20%, how many covered call we can write to cover the lose?
刪除i just use married put to protect my profile so that I can control the risk level.
8仔! 你話"change the long stocks into long ditm or itm calls (delta > 0.9), to free up cash next monday."
刪除呢到唔係無明, 可否講解? 點樣Long call可以 free up cash?
since ditm long call is only a fraction of the stock price, so he can sell the stock and some portion of the money to buy ditm call.
刪除Howevr, using this approach, if the stock is going south, Thu will still suffer from two impacts, the decline of the call option value, and the lost of the option time value. You can sell coversed call gain part of the loss. But if the stock price really drops over 3-5%, covered call cannot help much.
941今日跌到咁, 攪撚錯?
回覆刪除你都冇買，唔洗爆粗下嘛？
刪除之前SP左85, 依家蝕緊2皮! 屌!
刪除請不要跟我,我怕屁股開花呀 =)
刪除嘩,屌,聽日941得返$82, 好撚驚呀... 我手頭好多short put....
回覆刪除近來好多股都跌好多..
回覆刪除睇黎大家都會接貨..
假如唔想接貨就可能要輸少少平左佢算了
或轉倉落下一個月無限復活
刪除希望5月結算941 收高過 $82.5啦... 否則睇黎我要使用絕招無限復活了...
刪除今朝 long put 2 contracts @ 82.5 2.41.
刪除put得兩張無肉食架喎...
刪除I don't want to take high risk...
刪除True. This also work for a bullish market.
刪除941跌穿80... 我D short put total 蝕緊十皮... FUCK it!
回覆刪除Mr. 8,
回覆刪除Any recommendations for 97771772?
I have done some adjustments to my portfolio. You guys may have a look at the new post today.
刪除I did sell close long put @ 82.5, 2 contracts.
回覆刪除so you make profit??
刪除Make only $900 profit
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